Between Hope and Prediction: My Bundesliga Forecast for 2026/27
The Bundesliga is back, and naturally I had resolved to take a completely sober, objective look at the new season—without the slightest trace of black-and-red bias. That worked until the exact moment I had to decide where to place Bayer 04 in my table.
After all, we are coming off a season that Leverkusen will probably file under “sobering reality” rather than “continuation of the success story”. Sixth place, two head coaches and considerably more goals conceded than any of us would have liked: after the intoxicating Alonso years, it sometimes felt like the morning after a very long championship celebration. You still remember that it was wonderful, but your head is pounding.
Carles Martínez now takes charge. A new coach, new ideas and once again plenty of movement in the squad. Following Erik ten Hag and Kasper Hjulmand, Martínez is already Bayer’s third head coach within a year. Continuity looks rather different. Nevertheless, I hope the Spaniard can turn this talented group back into a genuine team. The quality is there. It simply needs to appear on the pitch at the same time more often.
So here is my final table—with no guarantees, of course, but with a generous amount of black-and-red bias.
At the Top: The Title and the Champions League
1. Bayern Munich
I would love to write something more original. But after 122 goals and 89 points last season, I would have to close both eyes to leave Bayern off the top. Their squad is deep, expensive and frighteningly good. Vincent Kompany has turned Munich’s occasional chaos back into a fairly reliable title-winning machine. Perhaps they will still manufacture an internal crisis over an unfortunate seating arrangement at the team dinner. On sporting merit, however, the competition remains behind them for now.
2. Borussia Dortmund
Niko Kovač has not made Dortmund more glamorous, but he has made them more stable. Second place and the league’s best defence were no accidents. BVB will probably provide less spectacle, but they will win more of the matches they previously threw away through a mixture of carelessness and self-sabotage. It is not quite enough to catch Bayern, but Dortmund remain the champions’ closest challengers.
3. RB Leipzig
Ole Werner led Leipzig to third place and was still dismissed. That is roughly the equivalent of sacking a chef because the food tastes good but does not look impressive enough in photographs. Martín Demichelis inherits a team packed with pace and talent. The change of coach brings risks, but the squad is still strong enough to qualify for the Champions League.
4. Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Yes, I am putting us in fourth place. Not because everything suddenly looks wonderful again after finishing sixth, but because I believe this team is capable of much more than it showed last season. Patrik Schick scores goals, Ibrahim Maza has enormous potential, and the young arrivals provide plenty of imagination. At the same time, the departures of Alejandro Grimaldo etc. leave significant gaps.
Carles Martínez wants to play bold, attacking football. I like that. But bravery must not once again mean that every time we lose possession, three opposition forwards are given a clear run at our goal. If Martínez finds the right balance, we will return to the Champions League. After yet another period of upheaval, however, I do not yet trust us to mount a genuine title challenge. My glasses may be black and red, but they are not opaque.
Europe in Sight
5. VfB Stuttgart
Sebastian Hoeneß has firmly established Stuttgart among the leading clubs. His team play purposeful, technically strong football and now look remarkably resilient in difficult periods. The additional burden of Champions League football will cost them points, however. Fifth place would not represent weakness. In Stuttgart, it is almost starting to look like Swabian planning reliability.
6. TSG Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim were the positive surprise of last season. Christian Ilzer has transformed a relegation candidate into a European contender. Competing on multiple fronts will reveal how sustainable that progress really is. They will not get quite as close to the Champions League this time, but another European qualification looks realistic.
7. Eintracht Frankfurt
Adi Hütter is back, and Frankfurt are hoping for a continuation of their previous success together. Eintracht have enough quality to return to Europe. They also have a remarkable ability to produce exciting football, a chaotic 3–3 draw and a completely inexplicable home defeat within the space of a single week. Seventh place therefore feels about right.
8. SC Freiburg
Freiburg remain Freiburg: intelligently managed, unpleasant to play against and usually better than people expect before the season begins. Julian Schuster has handled the transition following Christian Streich impressively. After a long European campaign, they may lack a little energy this time. It should still be enough for a place in the top half.
The Great Mid-Table Mix
9. Mainz 05
Urs Fischer lifted Mainz out of the relegation zone and turned them back into a team nobody particularly enjoys facing. After a complete pre-season, his influence should become even more apparent. They lack some individual quality for Europe, but not enough to prevent a comfortable mid-table finish.
10. FC Augsburg
After Sandro Wagner’s brief and unsuccessful chapter, Manuel Baum stabilised the club. Augsburg will once again be neither particularly attractive nor particularly comfortable to face. Playing against FCA often feels like going on a long walk with a stone in your shoe: manageable in principle, but persistently unpleasant.
11. Hamburger SV
HSV survived their first year back in the Bundesliga with relatively few problems. The great euphoria has given way to cautious normality—which probably qualifies as a historic development in Hamburg. Merlin Polzin has kept the team together, but the next step up the table will have to wait.
12. Borussia Mönchengladbach
The Foals have stabilised under Eugen Polanski. For now, however, that is about as far as it goes. Gladbach possess enough quality to enjoy some comfortable spells, but not enough consistency to challenge for Europe. Thrilling home victories and baffling defeats will probably alternate as reliably as the colours on a traffic light.
13. Schalke 04
Schalke are finally back. Promotion as second-division champions, Miron Muslić on the touchline and a stadium that never lost its force even outside the Bundesliga have given the club fresh energy. Robin Gosens and the experience within the squad will help. Even so, this will be a demanding season. Schalke will survive—probably with rather more drama than is medically advisable.
14. Union Berlin
A new chapter begins at Union under Mauro Lustrinelli. Following several changes to both the squad and the sporting leadership, I still struggle to form a clear picture of the team. The Alte Försterei remains an important advantage, but in footballing terms it could be a difficult season. Union will survive, although probably not until late in the campaign.
15. 1. FC Köln
Köln only just remained above the danger zone last season. René Wagner is expected to bring greater stability, but the squad still lacks depth. Köln will fight, suffer and probably complain about referees, directors and the weather in roughly equal measure. In the end, it will just be enough—mainly because other teams have even greater problems.
Trembling Until the Very End
16. Werder Bremen
Werder only narrowly escaped relegation last season. Daniel Thioune has stabilised the team, but their attacking threat remains limited. Bremen will finish in the relegation play-off position. Supporters on the Weser will therefore spend the campaign’s final weeks trembling, calculating and cautiously studying the team finishing third in Bundesliga 2.
17. SC Paderborn
Paderborn defeated VfL Wolfsburg in the relegation play-offs and thoroughly deserved their return to the top flight. Ralf Kettemann encourages his team to play courageous football, but in the Bundesliga there is sometimes only one misplaced pass between bravery and outright recklessness. Paderborn will upset a few favourites, but over 34 matches, I do not believe the squad has sufficient quality to survive.
18. SV Elversberg
Elversberg are the season’s most wonderful story. A small club, a small stadium and a first-ever Bundesliga campaign—this is exactly why I love football. Vincent Wagner has achieved something extraordinary, and his team will probably surprise several opponents. Nevertheless, the leap is enormous. Sadly, sympathy neither scores goals nor prevents them.
For Bayer 04, fourth place after last season’s disappointment would represent an important step back in the right direction. Of course I dream of more. That is part of the job description for any supporter. But before we start talking about the Meisterschale again, we should first make sure our defence does not respond to every opposition counterattack as though the entire back line has an urgent appointment on the touchline.
