The new season is just around the corner, time to publish my never-master season predictions. As always, you are welcome to praise or criticize my forecasting skills at the end of the season.
Last season's predictions were consistent in that I correctly predicted three out of four Champions League contenders, and four out of five last year. I wasn't particularly good at predicting relegation in the past. This had improved very, very slightly in the meantime, because during the Corona period I had correctly predicted both directly relegated teams. In the year before last, on the other hand, both of my direct relegation candidates stayed in the league. Last season, however, I correctly predicted at least one of the two direct relegation candidates
And here are my run-in expectations for the coming 2024/25 season:
1) Dose Leipzig: I think Leipzig have learned from previous years. The squad has many players with potential and seems to be slowly internalizing the coach's system.
2) Bayern Munich: Bayern are trying to be the measure of all things, but the squad is far too big despite the triple burden, which quickly causes unrest and loss of points.
3) Bayer Leverkusen: With the current squad, we should be able to make it into the Champions League again. We are once again considered by many to be the secret favorite, but realistically we have to learn how to deal with defeats this year.
4) Borussia Dortmund: Last season and missing out on the title are still having an impact. Some leaders have left the club and the new additions harbor a certain risk potential.
5) VfB Stuttgart: The team certainly played beyond its capabilities last year. The new additions must show that they can compensate for the departures. With the coach, however, international competition is definitely on the cards.
6) Eintracht Frankfurt: I fear that the latest transfers have weakened the team. The coach is the first shaky candidate in the league, despite sympathy. After that, there could be stabilization and an international place.
7) SC Freiburg: Consistency will also stand out this year. The new coach should achieve a place in the upper midfield, even if expectations in Breisgau have risen recently.
8) Hoffenheim: Difficult to assess, but certainly stronger than last year. However, not much has changed compared to last year. The unrest within the club remains. The illusion of qualifying for the international stage has evaporated.
9) VfL Wolfsburg: With the coach, there is enough room to improve further this year. But nothing more.
10) Borussia M'Gladbach: I still think the coach is great, but the environment is not. Nevertheless, Borussia should at least manage to establish itself in the secure midfield, which can be seen as a success compared to previous years.
11) Mainz 05: After the difficult previous season, Mainz will finish in a secure mid-table position this time. The return to their old home strength should secure enough points.
12) Union Berlin: In the season before last, Union certainly played above their own limit, last year below. However, the Köpenickers are too solid to collapse again.
13) Werder Bremen: The ongoing personnel discussions and financial necessities bring uncertainty, at least at the start of the season. But it should be enough this time, as the team is stronger than the rest of the teams below it.
14) FC Augsburg: Augsburg is a miracle team. Actually, this not-superior team can't tear anymore. The team was supposed to be in the relegation battle the whole time, but somehow they manage to stay in the league again.
15) VfL Bochum: The euphoria in Bochum is good for the decisive points after relegation despite the cup exit. This year will be difficult again, but relegation will be avoided.
16.) FC St. Pauli: It's always difficult when you're promoted. However, the team is stronger than Heidenheim and Kiel in terms of personnel. The fascination of the Millerntor provides the decisive points that are enough for relegation.
17) Heidenheim: Yes, the second year after promotion should also show the bitter reality for Heidenheim. The carefree soccer is over, some key players are no longer there. That will lead to direct relegation.
18) Holstein Kiel: The team is the clear underdog and almost everyone has it as relegation candidate number 1. But that offers the chance to pick up a point or two away from home. It won't be enough.
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