The “Never-Champion (That’s So Yesterday)” Season Review: Forecast vs. Final Standings

When I published my season forecast for the 2024/25 Bundesliga on Wednesday, August 21, 2024, I was brimming with confidence: RB Leipzig at the summit, followed by Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen. Five months—and 34 matchdays—later, after countless twists and turns, the final verdict is as sobering as it is exhilarating.

At the very top, it became clear that last season’s powerhouses don’t always clinch the crown. RB Leipzig, my presumed title favorite, faltered early with a string of injuries and dips in form, ultimately finishing seventh rather than first. In stark contrast, Bayern Munich preserved their trademark consistency: my prediction of second place turned out to be too modest—they marched to the title with room to spare. Bayer Leverkusen likewise outperformed expectations by one spot, ending the campaign in second. These two clubs dominated the table and relegated Eintracht Frankfurt—whom I had slotted mid-table—to a surprising third place, thanks to Frankfurt’s tactical ingenuity and impressive consistency.

In the chasing pack, Borussia Dortmund largely held course: I forecast them in fourth place, and that’s exactly where they landed. Borussia Mönchengladbach likewise met my mark at tenth, while VfL Wolfsburg missed by only two spots, coming in eleventh instead of ninth. Particularly commendable were the seasons of SC Freiburg and Mainz 05: Freiburg climbed to fifth (versus my seventh-place prediction), and Mainz thundered all the way to sixth (versus my eleventh).

Disappointments, however, struck teams I had rated more highly. VfB Stuttgart slipped from my projected fifth into ninth, exposing defensive frailties. TSG Hoffenheim, pegged for a comfortable mid-table berth, plummeted to fifteenth. Union Berlin and FC Augsburg eked out safety in thirteenth and twelfth, respectively—only marginally better than my forecasts and just above the relegation zone.

At the foot of the table lay the greatest divergences. VfL Bochum, whom I had pegged at fifteenth, tumbled all the way to eighteenth and into the second division. Heidenheim finished sixteenth, Kiel seventeenth, making their demotion battles only marginally less dire than I anticipated.

Looking back, this season underscores that even the most seasoned analysts can be outwitted by the Bundesliga’s inherent unpredictability. Injuries, peaks and troughs of form, and surprise managerial changes can upend the balance of power overnight. My 2024/25 review is thus less a tale of failure than a celebration of what makes German football so thrilling: its volatility. And it’s precisely this unpredictability that fuels the enduring fascination of the Bundesliga.